The day the certainty got beat: George Simon
George Simon • September 15th, 2025 3:23 PM • 4 min read
The Group One Makybe Diva from Flemington last Saturday reminded me of the biggest certainty I've ever seen beaten.
The memories came flooding back watching the cult hero Mr Brightside rack up his tenth Group One win and, in the process, taking his stakes earnings to a mind boggling $17m.
As a spectacle, the race was a fizzer.
Even though the small field included several high class gallopers including Via Sistina, Aeliana and Antino, it was Mr Brightside who dominated from the outset.
Allowed to assume the pace-making duties by regular rider Craig Williams, Mr Brightside set up pedestrian sectionals in front, ensuring the race was nothing more than a sprint home.
When you've got a galloper like Mr Brightside who can reel off a closing 600m in better than 33 seconds, that spells trouble for his opposition.
It's simply not possible for horses, to run quicker, even allowing for the calibre of the opposition.
The tactics adopted by rival jockeys would have had Williams giggling a long way from home as it virtually gifted the race to Mr Brightside.
And with McDonald, Shinn and Lane amongst his rival jockeys, Williams was mindful that these were some of the best jockeys in the business.
There is a widely shared view amongst many top trainers in Australia, it is pointless to tell Craig Williams how to ride your horse.
Not because he's ignorant and won't listen.
Far from it.
He's arguably the most prepared, both physically and mentally, jockey in Australia.
He'll have his own speed maps and importantly he's got an uncanny knack of knowing exactly where his opposition will be.
Multiple Melbourne Cup winning trainer Lee Freedman often said it was unnecessary to give Williams any instructions.
So, what's all this got to do with the biggest certainty I've ever seen beaten?
Well, it's because the horse involved was none other than Mr Brightside himself.
Before he found fame and fortune and a legion of adoring fans across the Tasman, Mr Brightside was a promising, unraced galloper in the Cambridge stable of Ralph Manning.
Word had got around the Cambridge racing circles that Manning's maiden galloper by Bullbars, had a decent dollop of natural ability.
Eventually, a mid-week maiden at Matamata in February 2021 was selected as an ideal starting off point for the horse now named Mr Brightside.
Out of respect to the jockey who rode Mr Brightside on debut, all I'll say is it wasn't one of his best rides.
And trust me, this jockey is a gun.
Some say he's the best we've ever seen.
Multiple Group One winner himself.
But he got beaten on Mr Brightside on debut.
Mr Brightside, backed off the board, went to the line under a stranglehold after being blocked for a run up the entire home straight at Matamata.
He eventually finished fifth.
The biggest certainty beat I've ever seen.
What do you think Opie?
